OSCARS PREDICTIONS: SUPPORTING ACTOR – CHARLES MELTON SKYROCKETS AFTER TWO BIG WINS FOR ‘MAY DECEMBER'

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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2024 Oscars Predictions:

Best Supporting Actor

Weekly Commentary (Updated Nov. 30, 2023): At the forefront of this week's buzz-boosters is breakout sensation Charles Melton, earning two supporting awards for his role in Netflix's "May December."

These victories significantly bolster Todd Haynes' black comedy's presence as it vies for original screenplay and best picture nominations. Interestingly, he might be able to help secure spots for his Oscar-winning co-stars Natalie Portman and Julianne Moore, who are also amid very competitive races.

Melton's main competition is his other highly-regarded and frankly, better-known actors in his category which include Ryan Gosling ("Barbie"), Robert Downey Jr ("Oppenheimer"), Mark Ruffalo ("Poor Things") and Robert DeNiro ("Killers of the Flower Moon"). They have all either been nominated or won Oscars before.

There are also the ones on the bubble such as veterans Willem Dafoe ("Poor Things") and Holt McCallany ("The Iron Claw") and newer names on the circuit such as Glenn Howerton ("BlackBerry") and Dominic Sessa ("The Holdovers").

Read: Variety's Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

Other Top-Tier Possibilities

Also In Contention

Eligible Titles (Alphabetized by Studio)**

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once" (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists' representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.